Anatomy of the point spread

The first thing to understand is where the point spread comes from and what it means:

• Linesmakers set the point spread -- the number by which one team is favored to win over another -- for each game. And linesmakers are divided into two categories: oddsmakers and bookmakers. Oddsmakers don't take bets on the lines they publish. Instead, they make money selling their lines to sportsbooks, wire services and other media outlets.
   
• The bookmaker is the person who takes your bet. Bookmakers shift lines during the week because they hope to balance the action. Their thinking is that somewhere out there is a person analyzing the same game as you but coming up with an opposing view about the potential outcome.
   
• Lines also shift because of player movement, injuries, the weather and other factors. It's important to note that the point spread is not a predicted margin of victory. Rather, it's the number that the linesmaker hopes will generate an even split in the wagered money.
   
• Another important point to remember is that if the point spread on a game is three and the margin of victory is three points, the game is a "push", meaning no action has taken place and your wagered money is returned to you.

Now that you know how lines are generated and why they move, let's show you what you need to do to beat them.

• The key advantage you have over a bookmaker is you do not have to wager on every game, you can pick and choose your opportunities.
   
• The bookmaker puts up a number on hundreds of events each week. In a typical NFL week, 14 to 16 games are played and multiple betting opportunities are available on each game.
   
• You may not have a good feel for all the games, but you most likely see several where you are confident that one team will cover. This is what handicappers refer to as an "overlay" or "getting value." If you find enough of these situations, you can make a profit betting on sports.
   
• Another factor in beating the number and boosting your win percentage is timing. Pay close attention to opening lines and which way they move before making any plays.
   
• Example: If a line opens at -6.5 and moves to -6, you know sportsbooks are likely getting action on the underdog. If you like the favorite in that particular game, you may be better served by waiting to see if the line moves from -6 to -5.5 to -5 over the course of the day or the week.
   
• Generally, the public prefers favorites and the over so the lines tend to move in that direction (but not all the time or books would simply raise those opening lines). Thus, the rule of thumb is to play favorites and overs early; underdogs and unders late.